Загрузка мощностей: how gold reacts
Descriptive statistics over 123 past releases: how far the price travels in the half hour after publication, how long the largest one-minute candle gets and how often the impulse reverses. This is not a forecast.
- In the half hour after the release the price usually travels about $5.64, $7.15 on average. A stop inside that range gets taken out by the move itself, even when your direction is right.
- Direction is not predictable: it went up 66 times out of 123 — close to a coin flip. Betting on «good number, so I buy» does not work here.
- The impulse survives about half the time (43% reversals). You cannot always count on the move continuing.
- A single one-minute candle reached $15.24 — spreads widen at such moments and orders fill worse than the book suggests.
Average move, 30 min$7.15median $5.64
Largest M1 candle$15.24
First impulse up66 / 123
Reversal by +60 min43%
Average move profile after the release, XAUUSD
Each bar is 5 minutes: how wide the price swung during those minutes, averaged over all releases. This is the range, not the direction — it is always positive, whichever way the market went. Grey is before the release. Hover a bar to see the number.
- +0…+5 min
- $2.74
- +15…+20 min
- $3.73
- +30…+35 min
- $3.14
- +45…+50 min
- $3.44
- +60…+65 min
- $2.72
- +75…+80 min
- $2.75
Recent releases
| Date | Actual | Move in 30 min | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/18/2026 | 76.3% | +$5.45 | faded within the hour |
| 07/17/2026 | 76.1% | +$15.01 | faded within the hour |
| 06/15/2026 | 76.2% | +$14.06 | impulse held |
| 05/15/2026 | 76.1% | −$26.41 | faded within the hour |
| 04/16/2026 | 75.7% | −$0.94 | faded within the hour |
| 03/16/2026 | 76.3% | +$9.25 | impulse held |
Released together with: Промышленное производство м/м. The reaction is measured for the whole report.
How to read these numbers
- Move — the distance between the high and the low over the 30 minutes after the release. Not «how much you earn», but «how much the market swings».
- Largest candle — the single longest minute within those 30 minutes. Shows how sharp the first burst can be.
- First impulse — the side the price travelled further from the pre-release level during the first 5 minutes.
- Reversal — the price gave back more than half of the impulse by the end of the hour.
- The profile shows how long the shaking lasts. Bars fade as the impulse runs out: if the range at +30 min is already half, entering on momentum is late.
- n — how many past releases were counted. The larger it is, the less randomness in the percentages.
- This describes the past, it is not a forecast. Nothing guarantees the future repeats it.
Event values — FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), calculations are ours.
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