Базовый CPI м/м: how gold reacts
Descriptive statistics over 124 past releases: how far the price travels in the half hour after publication, how long the largest one-minute candle gets and how often the impulse reverses. This is not a forecast.
- In the half hour after the release the price usually travels about $11.02, $13.92 on average. A stop inside that range gets taken out by the move itself, even when your direction is right.
- It goes up more often — 75 out of 124. The edge is small: an observation, not a rule.
- The impulse survives about half the time (49% reversals). You cannot always count on the move continuing.
- A single one-minute candle reached $60.11 — spreads widen at such moments and orders fill worse than the book suggests.
Average move, 30 min$13.92median $11.02
Largest M1 candle$60.11
First impulse up75 / 124
Reversal by +60 min49%
Average move profile after the release, XAUUSD
Each bar is 5 minutes: how wide the price swung during those minutes, averaged over all releases. This is the range, not the direction — it is always positive, whichever way the market went. Grey is before the release. Hover a bar to see the number.
- +0…+5 min
- $10.68
- +15…+20 min
- $3.70
- +30…+35 min
- $3.53
- +45…+50 min
- $3.08
- +60…+65 min
- $3.76
- +75…+80 min
- $3.48
Recent releases
| Date | Actual | Move in 30 min | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2026 | 0.2% | +$11.05 | faded within the hour |
| 07/14/2026 | 0.0% | +$46.27 | impulse held |
| 06/10/2026 | 0.2% | +$5.77 | faded within the hour |
| 05/12/2026 | 0.4% | +$8.28 | impulse held |
| 04/10/2026 | 0.2% | +$9.13 | impulse held |
| 03/11/2026 | 0.2% | −$22.80 | impulse held |
Released together with: CPI м/м. The reaction is measured for the whole report.
How to read these numbers
- Move — the distance between the high and the low over the 30 minutes after the release. Not «how much you earn», but «how much the market swings».
- Largest candle — the single longest minute within those 30 minutes. Shows how sharp the first burst can be.
- First impulse — the side the price travelled further from the pre-release level during the first 5 minutes.
- Reversal — the price gave back more than half of the impulse by the end of the hour.
- The profile shows how long the shaking lasts. Bars fade as the impulse runs out: if the range at +30 min is already half, entering on momentum is late.
- n — how many past releases were counted. The larger it is, the less randomness in the percentages.
- This describes the past, it is not a forecast. Nothing guarantees the future repeats it.
Event values — FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), calculations are ours.
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