Заявки на пособие по безработице: how gold reacts
Descriptive statistics over 545 past releases: how far the price travels in the half hour after publication, how long the largest one-minute candle gets and how often the impulse reverses. This is not a forecast.
- In the half hour after the release the price usually travels about $6.04, $8.27 on average. A stop inside that range gets taken out by the move itself, even when your direction is right.
- Direction is not predictable: it went up 265 times out of 545 — close to a coin flip. Betting on «good number, so I buy» does not work here.
- The impulse survives about half the time (51% reversals). You cannot always count on the move continuing.
- A single one-minute candle reached $55.46 — spreads widen at such moments and orders fill worse than the book suggests.
Average move, 30 min$8.27median $6.04
Largest M1 candle$55.46
First impulse up265 / 545
Reversal by +60 min51%
Average move profile after the release, XAUUSD
Each bar is 5 minutes: how wide the price swung during those minutes, averaged over all releases. This is the range, not the direction — it is always positive, whichever way the market went. Grey is before the release. Hover a bar to see the number.
- +0…+5 min
- $4.91
- +15…+20 min
- $2.86
- +30…+35 min
- $3.26
- +45…+50 min
- $2.66
- +60…+65 min
- $3.61
- +75…+80 min
- $3.43
Recent releases
| Date | Actual | Move in 30 min | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13/2026 | 209K | +$10.97 | faded within the hour |
| 08/06/2026 | 199K | −$11.65 | faded within the hour |
| 07/30/2026 | 197K | −$7.55 | faded within the hour |
| 07/23/2026 | 187K | −$12.82 | impulse held |
| 07/16/2026 | 208K | −$32.41 | impulse held |
| 07/09/2026 | 215K | +$0.67 | noise, no trend |
How to read these numbers
- Move — the distance between the high and the low over the 30 minutes after the release. Not «how much you earn», but «how much the market swings».
- Largest candle — the single longest minute within those 30 minutes. Shows how sharp the first burst can be.
- First impulse — the side the price travelled further from the pre-release level during the first 5 minutes.
- Reversal — the price gave back more than half of the impulse by the end of the hour.
- The profile shows how long the shaking lasts. Bars fade as the impulse runs out: if the range at +30 min is already half, entering on momentum is late.
- n — how many past releases were counted. The larger it is, the less randomness in the percentages.
- This describes the past, it is not a forecast. Nothing guarantees the future repeats it.
Event values — FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), calculations are ours.
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