What the structure looks like
The prior downtrend is broken - you can see it from the way price moved out from under the descending trendline and never came back to it. The current uptrend is still intact, the trendline below is holding, and I don't see a single close under it.
So my base case is that this is a pause within the uptrend, not a reversal. A reversal would look different: a break of the ascending line, a move back under it, and only then a drop lower. None of that has happened on the hourly chart.
Upper boundary: 88.7
Today price approached for the third time and pulled back from there for the third time. No breakout. The high of recent weeks is , meaning price did poke above the level but couldn't hold there, which is exactly why the level is still working.
Three tests in a row cuts both ways. On one hand, each approach eats into supply and raises the odds that the fourth attempt breaks through. On the other, as long as there's no breakout, the level remains a level, and I see no point trading against that fact.
Lower boundary: 85
After bouncing off the top, price dropped down to 85. It's a mirror level: it used to work as resistance, now it's holding as support. The bounce from there did happen, and that's my main argument that the lower half of the range is under buyers' control.
Right now the last close is , meaning price has climbed back toward the upper boundary, closer to resistance than to support. Inside a range that's normal, but it's exactly the kind of setup that often precedes a decision.
For scale: the whole range over recent weeks runs from to . So the current 85- zone is the upper half of that move, and price hasn't given back much ground in a while.
How I'm trading this
Inside 85- I have no interest. The channel is narrow, the moves are choppy, and any position taken from the middle is a bet that price reaches the opposite boundary, not a trade based on structure.
My preferred scenario is trading the breakout of the range boundaries. I've marked targets above and below price right on the chart - they differ for the upper and lower scenarios, and I'm not going to pick a side in advance. The market will show which way it breaks.
What invalidates the whole uptrend idea is a break of the ascending trendline combined with a move under 85 that holds. At that point it's no longer a pause in the uptrend but a full breakdown, and the trade becomes the lower scenario, not looking for longs. Symmetrically: a confirmed close above removes the resistance question and opens up the upper targets.
For now, neither has happened - price sits between 85 and , and I'm waiting for the breakout rather than trying to predict it.