What I see on the chart
The Ethereum situation almost mirrors what's happening with Bitcoin right now. There's a downtrend on the higher timeframe, an upward impulse inside it, and a level formed by a correction, sitting at , which price has reached.
There's one difference, but it matters. With Bitcoin, price approached such a level; with Ethereum, it's already been broken, and an accumulation zone has formed right on top of it. The last close is , meaning we're inside that zone.
Accumulation boundaries
For me, the range boundaries are: 2324 on the bottom and 2566 on top. The upper boundary matches the high of recent weeks - , meaning price hasn't gone any higher throughout the entire current impulse, which started from .
From the close at to the lower boundary is about 93 points, and to the upper one about 149. Price is sitting in the middle with a slight downward skew, and that's exactly the position where no scenario reads clearly: inside accumulation, neither buyers nor sellers have the edge.
Why I read this as accumulation
The level was broken by the upward impulse, but no continuation followed. Instead, price started churning around it, building volume in a narrow - corridor. This is what position distribution by a large player looks like: the move stops exactly at a significant level, and then work continues within the boundaries.
With a downtrend on the higher timeframe, I have no predetermined directional preference. The impulse from is strong, but it remains a correction to the trend until proven otherwise. So I'm not going to guess where price will break out.
How I'm waiting for it to play out
The logic is simple: to trade alongside the large players, you need price to exit the range. The direction of the trade is set by whichever accumulation boundary gets broken.
A breakout above - I work from the buy side. A drop below - I work from the sell side. Until price exits the boundaries, any trade inside - means trading against whoever is building a position, and I don't see the point in that.
I also keep false breakouts in mind separately. A boundary break with a quick return inside the range cancels the idea in that direction, and then I wait again - now with the understanding that accumulation continues and the boundaries remain valid.
In short
- Ethereum's price closed at inside an accumulation zone bounded by and
- The level, formed by a correction, has been broken, and accumulation built right on top of it
- The downtrend on the higher timeframe persists, and the upward impulse from remains a correction to it for now
- The direction of the trade is determined by whichever boundary breaks: above I work from the buy side, below from the sell side
- I'm not expecting trades inside the - range, and a return into the range after a breakout cancels the idea