What the last impulse gave us
The recent upward move was truly impulsive - sharp, with no long pauses. For me, its main value isn't the rally itself, but the fact that it let me pin down the current low of the long-term downtrend. Before that, the bottom point was debatable; now it's confirmed.
The impulse pushed price up to the target level of . That was exactly the reference point the move was heading toward. But there was no breakout: price approached and stalled.
Why the downtrend is still intact for me
is a level formed by a correction within the downward move. Until it's broken, there's nothing to invalidate the trend with. An upward impulse on its own doesn't cancel the trend - only a confirmed close above such a boundary does.
So I'm not rushing to flip the picture bullish just because of a strong rally. Formally, we're still inside a downtrend structure, just with a refined low.
No pullback - an argument for continuation
After an impulse like that, you'd normally expect to see a retracement. It's not being given. Price is sitting right below the level, with the last close at , and the top of the recent weeks' range at .
When a pullback isn't handed out and price stays pinned to the boundary, it usually points to preparation for continuation in the direction of the impulse - meaning a breakout above . That's my base-case read on the situation, but not the only possible one.
Accumulation is always a balance
The key thing to keep in mind: accumulation below a level doesn't guarantee an upside breakout. Accumulation is a balance between buyers and sellers, and price will ultimately go wherever the bigger money is. No structure, however clean, holds up against serious volume.
That's why I'm not trying to guess the exit in advance. The recent weeks' range is wide - from to - and you can draw pretty much any scenario inside it.
How I'm waiting for the resolution
I'm waiting for price to exit the range. The broken boundary will tell me which way to trade, not my own expectations set before the breakout.
The upside is , with as the upper edge of the recent move. A confirmed close above changes the whole picture and removes the argument that the downtrend remains unbroken. A drop back down, deeper into the range toward , cancels the continuation idea and keeps the downtrend structure alive.
As long as price stays pinned under without giving a pullback, the situation is unreadable in terms of direction, but very readable in terms of logic: sit tight and wait to see who pushes through the boundary.
In short
- The upward impulse let me pin down the current low of the long-term downtrend
- Price reached the target level of but didn't break through, with the last close at
- As long as stays unbroken, the downtrend isn't invalidated for me
- No pullback after the impulse plus price holding below the level raises the odds of an upside breakout
- Accumulation is a balance, so only the broken boundary of the - range will reveal direction