Where price stands
The last closed 4h candle is at . That's the midpoint of the - range - the spot where neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand yet. The broader range of recent weeks, -, is wider, but its upper part has already played out: we covered the - and - zones before, and price rejected down from both.
On the downside, it's worth giving the boundary some room for a wick, roughly down to . The recent low of confirms this - price already tested that area, and buyers pulled it back up from there.
Why I'm not marking up more levels
A common mistake is to plaster the chart with a dozen lines and try to explain every single move. Attention gets spread thin, and the structure the market is actually showing you gets lost.
Right now the market is drawing one clear picture: a horizontal range after the drop from the upper zones. Until that's broken, there's no point adding anything else to the chart. Range first, decision second - not the other way around.
Short term: trading inside the range
Inside -, I trade local trends on M5-M15, working primarily off the boundaries. Entries come from the edges, not the middle: at , price has roughly 70 points of room to move in either direction, making it the worst spot for a position.
What matters here: the boundaries are a reference point for entries, not a guarantee of a reversal. The reaction needs to be confirmed on the lower timeframes, not assumed in advance.
Medium term: boundaries as decision points
For medium-term positioning, and aren't targets - they're starting points. What matters isn't the approach to the level itself, but what price does once it gets there.
If gets rejected from above and price falls back into the range, the seller keeps the upper hand, and the logical continuation is another run at the lower boundary. If - fails to hold, the range structure breaks, and the whole idea of trading inside it is off the table - from there, the chart needs to be remapped lower.
A confirmed close above shifts attention to the upper zones we discussed earlier. But while price sits in the middle, it's too early to talk about that.
What invalidates the idea
The range-trading idea holds exactly as long as both boundaries hold. A confirmed break below or above isn't automatically a signal to trade the breakout - it's a cue to stop trading off the boundaries and wait for a new structure to form.
In short
- Working range is -, with the lower boundary around allowing for a wick
- Price at sits in the middle of the range - the worst zone for entries
- Short term: local trends on M5-M15 traded off the range boundaries
- Medium term: and are decision points, not targets
- A confirmed break below or above invalidates the range-trading setup