What the price has done
The - zone worked as a base: price accumulated inside it, then broke out to the upside and reached the nearest reversal point - . This is where the downward substructure began, meaning it's the level the market previously turned down from.
Right now that exact mark is being tested. The last close was - literally just below the level. The recent weeks' range of - shows that a high above has already been made, and now participants are forming a low, but on the other side of the level this time. To me, this is the key detail of the whole picture.
Why I read this as continuation of the uptrend
A level flipping sides is textbook price action: what used to be resistance starts acting as support. The high has been taken out, a pullback is underway, but the low is forming above , not below it.
The second argument is the ascending trendline. Price is sitting right on it now, which means the uptrend hasn't been broken yet. As long as the line holds, I have no reason to change my view on the medium-term direction.
So we get two things lining up at the same point: the horizontal level at and the diagonal support. Confluences like this are usually what decide where the market goes next.
Upside target
If this setup holds, my upside target is . That's where I expect price to head if the test of and the trendline goes smoothly and the market continues its structure higher.
The intermediate obstacle along the way is the recent weeks' high of . Until price climbs above it, we're talking about a test, not a continuation of the impulse.
What invalidates the idea
Invalidation is simple and clear-cut: a break of the ascending trendline with a confirmed close below it. Not a wick, not a brief poke through - an actual close and hold below.
In that case, I'd expect a deeper correction toward the upper boundary of the accumulation zone, i.e., . That would be a return to the level price broke out from, and a logical spot for a retest of the base.
If price drops below and stays there, the whole structure of the low forming above the level falls apart, and the priority shifts downward, toward the boundary of the accumulation zone.
What I'm watching
All my attention right now is on two things: how the trendline holds up and how the test of plays out. As long as price stays above the level and above the line, I'm working from the scenario of continuation toward .
A confirmed close below the trendline flips the picture and opens the road to . The market is sitting right between these two scenarios at the moment, and it should resolve in the coming sessions - the range is too narrow for price to sit in it for long.
What matters more to me here isn't guessing the first move correctly, but waiting for the reaction: a level of this significance usually gives a clear signal on its own.